# Johan Fourie

> Professor of Economics at Stellenbosch University, Chair of Economics,
> History and Policy, and founder of LEAP (Laboratory for the Economics of
> Africa's Past). Economic history of Africa, with a focus on the long-run
> development of southern Africa. The full text of each working paper is
> available in Markdown at the links below.

## Working papers

- [Do Cricket Captains Maximise Winning? Evidence from 125 Years of the Follow-On Rule](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheDeclineOf_v1.md): Whether experienced professionals choose the strategy that maximises their chance of success is hard to test, because decisions and their outcomes are rarely recorded together. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheDeclineOf_v1.pdf Supplement: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheDeclineOf_sup_v1.md
- [The Household in a Coercive Society: Evidence from South Africa's Cape Colony](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheHouseholdIn_v1.md): Household size is a standard demographic measurement, but in economies where the household was also the unit of production it conflates two populations with different determinants. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheHouseholdIn_v1.pdf
- [Hunting in Pairs: Testing for Coworker Effects in Professional Cricket](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_HuntingInPairs_v2.md): I test cricket's belief that bowlers hunt in pairs, comparing the same bowler alongside different partners within a match across 1.36 million overs. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_HuntingInPairs_v2.pdf
- [Path Dependence in Economic History Publications](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TestingForPath_v2.md): This paper asks whether the concept of path dependence applies to economic history’s own publication record. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TestingForPath_v2.pdf
- [The Poor Fund as Lender: Church Credit and Agricultural Production in the Cape Colony, 1686–1829](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_JT_ThePoorFund_v1.md): Long before banks reached rural households, religious charities placed their assets with private borrowers. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_JT_ThePoorFund_v1.pdf
- [The Price of Submission](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ThePriceOf_v1.md): Economics journals ration access to peer review with time and money; a July 2026 census of 500 journals finds 22.6 per cent charge a submission fee. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ThePriceOf_v1.pdf
- [Protest from Above: Elite Decoupling and Public Petitioning in the VOC Cape Colony](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JS_JF_ProtestFromAbove_v2.md): Elite competition is usually contained. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JS_JF_ProtestFromAbove_v2.pdf Supplement: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JS_JF_ProtestFromAbove_sup_v2.md
- [Selection into the Great Trek](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_CL_SelectionIntoThe_v5.md): We study selection into the Great Trek, the 1835–1840 migration of 12,000–14,000 Dutch-speaking colonists from the British Cape Colony into the southern African interior. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_CL_SelectionIntoThe_v5.pdf
- [Uprooted: Migration, Coercion, and the Roots of Social Connectedness](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_UprootedMigrationCoercion_v1.md): How people migrated – not just whether they did – shapes its social legacy. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_UprootedMigrationCoercion_v1.pdf Supplement: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_UprootedMigrationCoercion_sup_v1.md
- [The Value of Peer Review and the Reward to Reputation](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ValueOfPeer_v6.md): When submissions outrun reviewer time, a journal must decide what to do with the papers no one reads, and that choice sets what its stamp of approval is worth. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ValueOfPeer_v6.pdf
- [When Everyone Writes Well: The Economics of Writing with AI](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_WhenEveryoneWrites_v1.md): Writing produces two things: the manuscript published now, and the capability its author will hold next year. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_WhenEveryoneWrites_v1.pdf Supplement: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_WhenEveryoneWrites_sup_v1.md
- [AI and Entry-Level Knowledge Work: Evidence from Research Assistants](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_AIAndEntry_v1.md): Studies of AI in science observe isolated tasks or the authors on a byline; this paper uses the acknowledgements of economics working papers to ask whether generative AI replaces or complements the research assistant. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_AIAndEntry_v1.pdf
- [A Disease Never Seen Here: Measuring the Severity of the 1713 Smallpox Epidemic at the Cape](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ADiseaseNever_v1.md): Debate about the Cape's 1713 smallpox epidemic has centred on its disputed death toll; this article reconstructs its severity and social consequences from the colony's daily journal, tax returns and Orphan Chamber estate papers. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ADiseaseNever_v1.pdf Supplement: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_ADiseaseNever_sup_v1.md
- [Biplots and Classification: Measuring Household Economic Systems at the Cape Colony](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_EtAl_BiplotsForHistorical_v1.md): Historical sources like tax lists, inventories or censuses record many quantities for each household; we show how a principal component analysis biplot maps combinations of holdings and measures what the map leaves out. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_EtAl_BiplotsForHistorical_v1.pdf
- [The Dismal State of the Dismal Science in South Africa](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheDismalState_v2.md): Researchers based in South Africa rarely publish in the top economics journals; across 1990–2025, only 2 regular top-five articles list a South African institution as an author's first affiliation. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheDismalState_v2.pdf
- [Selective Sanitation and Racial Health Inequality](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_EtAl_SelectiveSanitationAnd_v2.md): How selective sanitation provision shaped racial health inequality, studied in early twentieth-century Paarl, South Africa, with death notices linked to streets and the staggered introduction of municipal stormwater drains. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_EtAl_SelectiveSanitationAnd_v2.pdf
- [The Unequal Visibility of Epidemic Death: Smallpox at the Cape, 1713](https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheUnequalVisibility_v1.md): Unequal death recording can obscure the social distribution of epidemic mortality: around the Cape's 1713 smallpox epidemic, deaths are documented for 22.2 per cent of men with five or more adult slaves, against 6.6 per cent of men with none. PDF: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheUnequalVisibility_v1.pdf Supplement: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheUnequalVisibility_sup_v1.md

## Published work

- [The New Economics of Cape Slavery](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/saje.70035): Fourie, Johan. 2026. South African Journal of Economics. Working paper: https://www.johanfourie.com/files/wp/JF_TheNewEconomics_v1.md
- [Running Towards: Labour Market Incentives for Runaway Slaves in the British Cape Colony, 1830–1838](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aehr.70034): Bergemann, Karl, Gabriel Brown, and Johan Fourie. 2026. Asia-Pacific Economic History Review.
- [Legacies of Loss: The Health Outcomes of Slaveholder Compensation in the British Cape Colony](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014498322000778): Martins, Igor, Jeanne Cilliers, and Johan Fourie. 2023. Explorations in Economic History 89: 101506.
- [When Cape Slavery Ended: Introducing a New Slave Emancipation Dataset](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014498321000012): Ekama, Kate, Johan Fourie, Hans Heese, and Lisa-Cheree Martin. 2021. Explorations in Economic History 81: 101390.
- [Prices and Living Standards: Evidence from Cape Colony Auction Rolls](https://rdcu.be/fvJaI): Walters, Leoné, Jonathan Schoots, and Johan Fourie. 2026. Cliometrica.
- [Colonial Elites in the Eighteenth-Century Cape Colony](https://revistes.ub.edu/index.php/HistoriaIndustrial/article/view/48401): Walters, Leoné, Johan Fourie, and Robert Ross. 2026. Revista de Historia Industrial – Industrial History Review.
- [Inequality in the Cape Colony, 1685–1844](https://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?pid=S0038-23532025000600020&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en): Fourie, Johan. 2025. South African Journal of Science 121 (11-12): 71–79.
- [Income Mobility Before Industrialization: Evidence from South Africa's Cape Colony](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/income-mobility-before-industrialization-evidence-from-south-africas-cape-colony/60A6816FC7347FA20B01E73358195BB9): Fourie, Johan, Erik Green, Auke Rijpma, and Dieter von Fintel. 2025. Social Science History 49 (1): 22–51.
- ['Waar Is Beter Dorp in Zuid Africa Dan Stellenbos?': What the Stellenbosch-Drakenstein Tax Censuses Reveal](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02582473.2025.2500410): Fourie, Johan, Erik Green, Christiaan Burger, Chris de Wit, Kate Ekama, Jan Greyling, Hans Heese, Jan-Hendrik Pretorius, Robert Ross, and Dieter von Fintel. 2025. South African Historical Journal 76 (4): 420–46.
- [Wheat Productivity in the Cape Colony in 1825: Evidence from Newly Transcribed Tax Censuses](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03031853.2023.2176895): Fourie, Johan, and Jan Greyling. 2023. Agrekon 62 (1): 98–115.
- [The Settlers' Fortunes: Comparing Tax Censuses in the Cape Colony and Early American Republic](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ehr.13190): Fourie, Johan, and Frank Garmon Jr. 2023. The Economic History Review 76 (2): 525–50.
- [The Great Divergence in South Africa: Population and Wealth Dynamics over Two Centuries](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596718302002): Von Fintel, Dieter, and Johan Fourie. 2019. Journal of Comparative Economics 47 (4): 759–73.
- [Numeracy of Africans, Asians, and Europeans During the Early Modern Period: New Evidence from Cape Colony Court Registers](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-0289.12064): Baten, Joerg, and Johan Fourie. 2015. The Economic History Review 68 (2): 632–56.
- [The Missing People: Accounting for the Productivity of Indigenous Populations in Cape Colonial History](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-african-history/article/abs/missing-people-accounting-for-the-productivity-of-indigenous-populations-in-cape-colonial-history/CC98B733B57E7B6F302097A81DBC4C22): Fourie, Johan, and Erik Green. 2015. The Journal of African History 56 (2): 195–215.
- [Settler Skills and Colonial Development: The Huguenot Wine-Makers in Eighteenth-Century Dutch South Africa](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-0289.12033): Fourie, Johan, and Dieter von Fintel. 2014. The Economic History Review 67 (4): 932–63.
- [The Quantitative Cape: A Review of the New Historiography of the Dutch Cape Colony](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02582473.2014.891646): Fourie, Johan. 2014. South African Historical Journal 66 (1): 142–68.
- [GDP in the Dutch Cape Colony: The National Accounts of a Slave-Based Society](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/saje.12010): Fourie, Johan, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. 2013. South African Journal of Economics 81 (4): 467–90.
- [The Remarkable Wealth of the Dutch Cape Colony: Measurements from Eighteenth-Century Probate Inventories](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0289.2012.00662.x): Fourie, Johan. 2013. The Economic History Review 66 (2): 419–48.
- [The Dynamics of Inequality in a Newly Settled, Pre-Industrial Society: The Case of the Cape Colony](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11698-009-0044-1): Fourie, Johan, and Dieter von Fintel. 2010. Cliometrica 4 (3): 229–67.
- [Living Standards in Settler South Africa, 1865–1920](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X22000545): Fourie, Johan, Kris Inwood, and Martine Mariotti. 2022. Economics & Human Biology 47: 101158.
- [Military Technology and Sample Selection Bias](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/social-science-history/article/abs/military-technology-and-sample-selection-bias/E5497E18034290BAC7ADB7CB2309D6C1): Fourie, Johan, Kris Inwood, and Martine Mariotti. 2020. Social Science History 44 (3): 485–500.
- [Black Living Standards in South Africa Before Democracy: New Evidence from Height](https://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?pid=S0038-23532018000100014&script=sci_arttext): Mpeta, Bokang, Johan Fourie, and Kris Inwood. 2018. South African Journal of Science 114 (1-2): 1–8.
- [Household Spending During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic](https://direct.mit.edu/jinh/article/55/3/369/130682): Fourie, Johan, and Johannes Norling. 2025. Journal of Interdisciplinary History 55 (3): 369–413.
- [Women's Employment in the United States After the 1918 Influenza Pandemic](https://www.ebhsoc.org/journal/index.php/ebhs/article/view/562): Fourie, Johan, and Johannes Norling. 2024. Essays in Economic & Business History 42 (1): 38–58.
- [The Missing Boys: Understanding the Unbalanced Sex Ratio in South Africa, 1894–2011](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20780389.2021.1987212): Marco-Gracia, Francisco J., and Johan Fourie. 2022. Economic History of Developing Regions 37 (2): 128–46.
- [The Crossover Point: Measuring the Age at Which Women Outnumber Men in South Africa, 1904–2011](https://zaguan.unizar.es/record/150433): Marco-Gracia, Francisco J., and Johan Fourie. 2022. Southern African Journal of Demography.
- [Correlates and Consequences of the 1918 Influenza in South Africa](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/saje.12285): De Kadt, Daniel, Johan Fourie, Jan Greyling, Elie Murard, and Johannes Norling. 2021. South African Journal of Economics 89 (2): 173–95.
- [Health Inequality and the 1918 Influenza in South Africa](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X2100019X): Fourie, Johan, and Jonathan Jayes. 2021. World Development 141: 105407.
- [Mega-Sport Events and Inbound Tourism: New Data, Methods and Evidence](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211973622000678): Fourie, Johan, and María Santana-Gallego. 2022. Tourism Management Perspectives 43: 101002.
- [Tourism Falls Apart: How Insecurity Affects African Tourism](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354816620978128): Santana-Gallego, María, and Johan Fourie. 2022. Tourism Economics 28 (4): 995–1008.
- [From Renaissance to Relevance: Towards an Applied African Economic History](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20780389.2026.2707070): Fourie, Johan. 2026. Economic History of Developing Regions.
- [Quantitative History and Uncharted People: Case Studies from the South African Past](https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/quantitative-history-and-uncharted-people-9781350331167/): Fourie, Johan (ed.) 2023. Bloomsbury Publishing.
- [Our Long Walk to Economic Freedom: Lessons from 100,000 Years of Human History](https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/our-long-walk-to-economic-freedom/0985F9390A3B26B40DE0AC6BC1111414): Fourie, Johan. 2022. Cambridge University Press.
- [The Data Revolution in African Economic History](https://direct.mit.edu/jinh/article/47/2/193/49177/The-Data-Revolution-in-African-Economic-History): Fourie, Johan. 2016. Journal of Interdisciplinary History 47 (2): 193–212.
- [Leader Selection and Why It Matters: Education and the Endogeneity of Favouritism in 11 African Countries](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/rode.12981): Maravall, Laura, Jörg Baten, and Johan Fourie. 2023. Review of Development Economics 27 (3): 1562–1604.
- ['For the Public Benefit'? Railways in the British Cape Colony](https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article-abstract/22/1/73/3930943): Herranz-Loncán, Alfonso, and Johan Fourie. 2018. European Review of Economic History 22 (1): 73–100.
- [The Significance of the Cape Trade Route to Economic Activity in the Cape Colony: A Medium-Term Business Cycle Analysis](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-review-of-economic-history/article/abs/significance-of-the-cape-trade-route-to-economic-activity-in-the-cape-colony-a-mediumterm-business-cycle-analysis/1997788CFA5DAAE52669F0580AC92E7D): Boshoff, Willem H., and Johan Fourie. 2010. European Review of Economic History 14 (3): 469–503.

## Pages

- [Research](https://www.johanfourie.com/research.html): all work in progress by theme, with current stage, and full citations for published work.
- [ReFourie](https://www.johanfourie.com/research/refourie.html): an AI-assisted replication, audit and re-estimation of thirty of my published papers, with costs and findings per paper. Code and data: https://github.com/johanfourieza/refourie
- [Books](https://www.johanfourie.com/books.html): books and edited volumes.
- [Public](https://www.johanfourie.com/public.html): the Our Long Walk blog and podcast.